AFC Conference Championship

by: John Ryan Sports

Not many people would have correctly identified these 4 teams as the final four of the 2008 NFL season, but here they are playing their best when it truly counts. I strongly believe it is also a reflection of the leagues desire to create more parity among the teams originating from the 1990’s so that on given Sunday anything can and will happen. With that said turnovers will be a big factor in each game and will have a direct impact on the outcome of these two Championship games.

My Ai Simulator correctly identified a 15* GOY Titan total winner OVER Pittsburgh/San Diego. This matchup is far different however and it grades as a 3* play on the UNDER. The AiS shows a 74% probability that 33 or fewer points will be scored in this game. AiS shows an 86% probability that Baltimore will not gain more than 4.5 total yards per play in this game and in past games where this occurred they were 8-1 UNDER over the past 3 seasons. Pittsburgh will have success running the ball and are projected to have a 76% probability of gaining 100 or more rushing yards. In past games where they rushed for 100 to 125 yards they were 6-1 UNDER over the past 3 seasons. Here is a 68% winning system posting a 47-22 record since 2002. Play under with road teams against the total after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers facing an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. What is even more interesting is that 50% of these games went under by 7 or more points. So, that would project to another low scoring affair when the Ravens are involved.

Baltimore is a hot winning team. Not necessarily winning with fantastic execution, but surviving on the opponents’ mistakes. They are 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons. Baltimore did not even rush the ball well last week and this places them into a strong perfect winning role. They are 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game since 1992; 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1992.

These are the two best defenses in the league statistically speaking. The Eagles defense is not far behind either one of them. Baltimore’s must have is to control the LOS and be able to run the ball effectively. Effectively does not mean gaining huge chunks of yards, but rather gaining the respect of the Pittsburgh defense. A few yards and respect is what Baltimore must have to stay in the game and then have a chance to win it in the 4th quarter. The Steelers plan, of course, will to minimize the Baltimore running game and specifically McClain. He rushed for 87 yards in the second meeting and is the third most yards allowed by the Steeler defense all year. This game shapes up to be a field possession style of game where the two heavy weight defenses exchange blow after blow until one of them makes a critical error. The point is that ball control and conservative play calling will take time off the clock in bunches and shorten the game significantly. Take the UNDER.

I am coming off a 14-1 ATS College Bowl campaign with 7* (9-1), 10* (3-0), and 15* (2-0) plays. I won my top rated 15* Titan total play last Sunday as Pittsburgh and Baltimore soared easily over the posted total. I will have a 15* Titan side going this Sunday so be sure to jump on board a play that I am very confident will win easily. Best of all is that you only pay when it wins ATS. At the same time do not overlook the other sports as I am hitting 4-1-1 80% w/NBA 10* plays and 60% ATS overall. College Hoops are hitting 58% ATS for a 26-18 ATS run. The NHL, as always is the case, is right around 500, but is making significant profits by exploiting false favorites. So, do yourself a favor and get each of my cards every day and you will start seeing the bank roll steadily grow as we enter my favorite money making opportunity on the calendar – March Madness. 

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