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2011 College Football's Top 20

by: Jim Feist

The countdown continues! Last week we looked at my Top 21-40, this week is my Top 20. The college football season kicks off September 1st and here's a look at college football's best!

20. Southern Miss: The Golden Eagles (8-5 SU/6-6 ATS in 2010) have an uptempo attack under Coach Larry Fedora, with a strong offense (36.8 ppg) and a below average defense (29.5 ppg allowed). They return senior QB Austin Davis (20 TDs, 6 INTs, 3,103 yards), plus speedy senior WR Kelvin Bolden (722 yards) and sophomore RB Kendrick Hardy (903 yards, 6.5 ypc). This offense averaged 200.8 yards rushing and 252.5 passing, one of the best in the country. Southern Miss usually plays a tough schedule, but it's softer this fall. They have made bowl appearance in 13 of the past 16 seasons and should again.

19. Georgia Tech: Paul Johnson's run-oriented squad (327 yards rushing per game, No. 1 in the nation) averaged 27.6 points, but folded down the stretch because of injuries. Because of it, sophomore QB Tevin Washington (2 TDs, 3 INTs) ran for 514 yards as a freshman and is ready to run the attack. A guy to watch in the young backfield is junior RB Orwin Smith, who ran for 516 yards last season and a sizzling 9.7 yards per carry!
  
Georgia Tech installed a 3-4 defense last season under new defensive coordinator Al Groh, one of three new assistants on defense, but allowed 26 ppg. Still, they ended the season on a 7-2 run under the total and held Air Force to 14 points in the bowl. They are on a 7-5 SU/8-4 ATS run on the road.

18. Michigan State: Only five starters are back on offense, but many of the key players are part of the returning mix, led by behind senior QB Kirk Cousins (20 TDs, 10 INTs, 2,825 yards), senior WR B.J. Cunningham and junior RB Edwin Baker (1,201 yds, 5.8 ypc). The main concern is the offensive line.
The defense allowed 22.3 ppg (39th in the country), and the defensive front should be among the Big Ten's best with Jerel Worthy, plus Kevin Pickelman and Blake Treadwell. The schedule is not easy, with a September 17 game at Notre Dame and road games at Iowa and Nebraska. Michigan State is 14-26 ATS its last 40 home games.

17. Missouri: Head Coach Gary Pinkel's squad was explosive offensively again last season, averaging 29.8 points, 156 yards rushing and 253 yards passing. They need to replace QB Blaine Gabbert, but have promising candidates in sophomore QB James Franklin and freshman QB Corbin Berkstresser, one of the most highly-touted quarterback prospects in the nation.
   
The offensive line returns senior starter LT Elvis Fisher and senior RB De'Vion Moore (519 yards) is back, plus sophomore RB Henry Josey and junior RB Kendial Lawrence averaged 5.8 yards per carry. Despite the offense getting all the attention, this defense was No. 6 in the country allowing 16.1 ppg (8-4 under the total).  A key addition looks like JUCO transfer DT Sheldon Richardson, who will help the defensive line and could be a Big 12 star.  Missouri is 40-14 SU, 24-23 ATS its last 54 home games. 

16. Arizona:  The Wildcats (7-5 SU, 3-8 ATS) underachieved, starting 7-1 before collapsing. Injuries and bad luck were the culprits, losing to USC by 3 and Arizona State by a point, but capped by an awful bowl loss to Oklahoma State (36-10). The 2011 offense is led by senior QB Nick Foles (20 TDs, 10 INTs, 3,191 yards) and senior RB Keola Antolin (668 yards, 4.7 ypc). The biggest question on offense is along an offensive line that will be breaking in five new starters.
    
The receiver position is headlined by playmaking senior WR Juron Criner (1,244 yards) and senior WR Dave Douglas (515 yards), the top two receivers.  Arizona will be solid at linebacker and cornerback where everyone returns. They allowed just 3.6 yards per rush and were strong against the pass. The schedule is their biggest problem, though Arizona is 20-14 ATS its last 33 as an underdog and they are 15-10 UNDER the total at home the last five years.

15. Georgia: Despite making a bowl, Georgia (6-7 SU/4-8 ATS) had a tough season with a new QB for the third straight season in redshirt freshman Aaron Murray. Murray is back for his sophomore season and put up strong numbers (24 TDs, 8 INTs, 3,049 yards). The offensive line gets three starters back and should look to run the pigskin first with a dynamite one-two backfield punch of junior RB Washain Easley (811 yards, 5.2 ypc) and senior RB Caleb King (430 yards, 5.4 ypc).
  The defense allowed just 22.1 ppg and is loaded, led by senior LB Marcus Downtin and LBs Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree. Sports bettors take note: Georgia is 38-15 SU/29-24 ATS on the road under Head Coach Mark Richt, though 1-4 SU/ATS last season.

14. Florida State: 2010 saw new Coach Jimbo Fisher take charge and the Seminoles were impressive, going 10-4. This offense was very balanced, averaging 31.4 points, 171 yards rushing and 209.9 yards passing and senior QB E.J. Manuel (4 TDs, 4 INTs) gets the full time nod. RB Chris Thompson (846 yards, 6.4 ypc) is back along with the top two receiving targets back. 
 
The defense was improved under new defensive coordinator Mark Stoops, allowing 19.6 ppg, 20th in the nation. A lot of talent returns, led by DB Xavier Rhodes and defensive end Brandon Jenkins, who led the team with 13.5 sacks. FSU carries a 9-3 run under the total into the new season.

13. Wisconsin: The Badgers (11-2 SU/7-5 ATS in 2010) are off a terrific season. They lose several key players, but the backfield is loaded with sophomore RB James White (1,052 yards, 670 yards per carry) and junior Montee Ball (996 yards, 6.1 ypc). All three of their top RBs last fall averaged at least 5.4 yards a carry! Throw in speedy 6-3 senior WR Nick Toon and there are plenty of weapons for the new QB.
  
Former North Carolina State quarterback Russell Wilson is headed to Wisconsin, who was terrific and has one year of eligibility remaining. The Badgers have a new defensive coordinator with Dan Doeren taking over the Northern Illinois head coaching job. The run defense was stout and returns tackles Jordan Kohout and Patrick Butrym. Wisconsin has been great at home, 44-5 SU, 25-18 ATS the last seven years, and gets Nebraska and Penn State at home.

12. TCU: Undervalued again! TCU is off a 13-0, 6-6 ATS season, making them 46-26 ATS the last six years. 5 offense and 6 defensive players return to team that had the top defense (11.4 ppg allowed) in the country and returns first-team All-American and Rose Bowl Defensive Most Valuable Player Tank Carder.
 
They lose senior QB Andy Dalton (26 TD, 6 INTs), so sophomore QB Casey Paschall (78 yards) steps in. Coach Gary Patterson likes balance on offense and the backfield is terrific with junior RBs Matthew Tucker (694) and Ed Wesley (1,065 yds, 6.6 ypc) to an offense that averaged 43.3 points, 230 yards passing and 261 rushing. They are 23-14-1 under the total the last four years with that bone-crushing defense, plus carry a 25-1 SU/19-5 ATS home record into the new season.

11. Stanford: The good news is star QB Andrew Luck returns. The downside is that so many other talents have moved on, including Coach Jim Harbaugh, off to the NFL. Stanford offensive coordinator David Shaw was promoted to head coach, so the same offensive style remains. Stanford (12-1 SU, 8-3-1 ATS in 2010) averaged 213.8 yards rushing, 258.7 passing behind junior QB Luck (32 TDs, 8 INTS, 3,338 yards) and was second in rushing with 453 yards, 8.2 yards per carry.
  
Three starters are gone from the offensive line, leaving first team All-Pac-10 T Jonathan Martin and first team All-Pac-10 G David DeCastro as the mainstays. They can play defense (17.4 ppg allowed), too, as in a 17-13 win at Arizona State with an edge in yards 420-268 as Luck threw for 292 yards. Stanford returns six defensive starters to a unit that finished ranked 10th in the nation in scoring defense. Stanford is on a 5-3 run over the total.

10. Oklahoma State: There's plenty of good news in Stillwater as Oklahoma State (11-2 SU/10-3 ATS in 2010) has another powerhouse, no-huddle offense attack behind senior QB 27-year-old Brandon Weeden (34 TDs, 13 INTs, 4,277 yards) and star junior WR Justin Blackmon (1,782 yards, 20 TDs). They averaged 44.2 points and were second in the nation in passing with 345.8 yds per game, 174.4 yards rushing. 
  
Defensive interior play is the biggest question mark for Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State was 8-5 over the total. The Cowboys will play six road games in 2011 and getting Texas and Missouri in back-to-back weeks in October will be their biggest early threat, but at least they get rival Oklahoma at home in the finale.

9. South Carolina: Last season the Gamecocks went 9-5 SU/7-6 ATS, knocked off No. 1 Alabama and lost just 35-27 at eventual champion Auburn. For 2011, Steve Spurrier could have some fun with this offense. Senior QB Stephen Garcia (20 TDs, 14 INTs, 3,059 yards) is joined by his top skill position players, a unit that averaged 30.9 points, 238.4 yards passing and 154.4 yards rushing.
  
They have balance on offense because of sophomore RB Marcus Lattimore, who ran for 1,197 yards, 4.8 ypc as a freshman. He was one of the nation's top running back prospects coming out of High school. The passing game returns  6-foot-4 junior WR Alshon Jeffery (1,517 yards) and junior WR Tori Gurley (465), the top two targets. Six starters are back on defense, a unit that allowed 23.1 ppg. Spurrier is 15-15 SU, 19-11 ATS on the road at South Carolina.

 8. Boise State: Boise State (12-1 SU/9-4 ATS in 2010) joins the Mountain West and after dominating the WAC for years, should have no trouble in their new conference. The Broncos have a super-talented team led by senior QB Kellen Moore (33 TDs, 6 INTs, 3,845 yards). The Broncos ranked second nationally averaging 46.7 points a game, 200 yards rushing and 319 passing.
  
Moore needs to work in new receivers but the offensive line will be strong behind senior offensive tackle Nate Potte. The defense is outstanding after allowing 12 ppg and returns senior defensive tackle Billy Winn. They have a battle with TCU, plus a rematch with Nevada in September, the only team to beat them last season, a 34-31 shocker, as the defense was gouged for 528 yards (269 rushing). Also, the opener won't be easy: Georgia in the Superdome. Boise is on a 7-2-1 run under the total.  Since 1999, Boise is 78-2 SU, 46-22 ATS at home on the blue carpet!

7. Notre Dame: 2010 was supposed to be a rebuilding year under new coach brian Kelly and despite a ton of injuries the Irish impressed with an 8-5 SU/7-5-1 ATS campaign.  Kelly added an uptempo attack (25.8 ppg, 257 yds passing) to South Bend and they get back 6-4 junior QB Dayne Crist (15 TDs, 7 INTs), who was lost halfway through the season (knee). Junior RB Cierre Wood (603 yards) is back after averaging 5.1 yards per carry. The defense, always a problem under Charlie Weis, made great improvements, allowing 20.2 ppg. The entire defensive front returns along with linebacker Manti Te'o, though the secondary is short on playmakers. The schedule isn't as tough and they get USC and BC at home.  

6. LSU: The only problem for the Tigers the last two years has been the passing attack. QBs Jordan Jefferson (7 TDs, 10 INTs) and senior Jarrett Lee (2 TDs, 1 INT) are back, but Coach Les Miles has 6-foot-5, 250-pound QB Zach Mettenberger, a four-star JUCO transfer, a pro-style quarterback. He started his career at Georgia of the SEC before transferring.
  
He may be the missing piece, with eight starters returning on offense, including the entire offensive line. The defense (18.2 ppg allowed) has many talented pieces back, with talented sophomore CB Tyrann Matheiu. With almost everyone back from an 11-2 sqaud, the Tigers will be very good. Perhaps the biggest concern: A Week 1 showdown against Oregon in Arlington, Texas. 

5. Nebraska: Welcome to the Big 10! Bo Pelini had a dominant defense last fall, 17.4 ppg (9th in the nation) during a 10-4 SU, 6-7 ATS campaign. The offense was improved, averaging 30.9 points, 247.6 yards rushing and 150.6 passing and for 2011, they return sophomore QB Taylor Martinez (10 TDs, 7 INTs), who ran for 965 yards. New offensive coordinator Tim Beck has tweaked the terminology and trimmed down the playbook. He wants his wide receivers to have more flexibility in their routes so they and the QBs can react to various defensive coverages. The schedule is very favorable, with a rematch with Washington (at home, September 17), plus they get Ohio State at home. Nebraska is 10-5 SU/ATS on the road under Pelini.

4. Alabama: It's still hard to believe defending champion Alabama (10-3 SU/7-5 ATS) finished fourth in the SEC West last season, despite being No. 1 to start the year loaded with talent. This was still a dominant team, No. 3 in the nation in points allowed (13.5 ppg) and a powerful, balanced offense. The 2011 team will lean on junior RB Trent Richardson (700 yds, 6.3 ypc), along with sophomore RB Eddie Lacy (406 yards, 7.3 ypc). The line adds 6-7, freshman OT Cyrus Kouandjio, one of the top offensive tackle recruits.
 
The big story is behind center, with sophomore QBs A.J. McCarron (389 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) and Phillip Sims battling it out.   The good news is there is talent in the passing game with senior WR Darius Hanks (456 yards) and senior WR Marquis Maze (557 yards), dangerous receivers and veterans. Alabama's defense was fifth in total yards and loaded for 2011. Senior LB Dont'a Hightower returns for his fourth season and senior DB Mark Barron anchors a strong secondary. Alabama's defense has gone 45 consecutive games without allowing an opposing running back to gain 100 or more yards rushing and is riding a 7-4-1 under the total.

3. Oregon:  Oregon is no ordinary offense under Chip Kelly, spreading the field, running the no-huddle and burning up defenses. Last season Oregon was No. 1 in the nation in points (47 ppg), with 244.5 yards passing and 286.2 yards rushing per contest. Things look bright for 2011 behind junior QB Darron Thomas (30 TDs, 9 INTs, 2,881 yards) and junior RB LaMichael James (1,731 yards, 5.9 ypc).
 
Keep an eye on speedy sophomore RB Lache Seastrunk, one of the nation's top recruits a year ago.   The Ducks were actually very good defensively, 12th in scoring defense (18.7 points per game) and return defensive backs Cliff Harris and senior John Boyett.   The Ducks were a plus-13 in turnover margin, seventh nationally, and had 35 regular season takeaways. Oregon is on a 13-5 run over the total and should be the team to beat in the New Pac 12.  

2. Oklahoma: Hopes are high for the Sooners, with a boatload of talent back, off a 12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS season, with a Big 12 championship and a Fiesta Bowl blowout of UConn, 48-20. The offense will be fine passing the football with junior QB Landry Jones (38 TDs, 12 INTs, 4,718 yds, 65.5% completions) and senior WR Ryan Broyles (1,622 yds), averaging 37.2 ppg, 138 yards rushing and 343.4 passing. That passing attack was third in the country.
 
The offense loses only RB DeMarco Murray and RT Eric Mensik, so second year offensive coordinator Josh Heupel has plenty of weapons to work.  The ground game has sophomore running back Roy Finch (398 yards, 4.7 ypc), who was the No. 2 back before getting injured. They have been boosted by one of the best recruiting classes in the nation for the second straight year, so this offense should be balanced and explosive. The Sooner defense has given up at least 20 points in 8 of their 13 games and 11-6 in their last 16 games away from home (counting bowls).  Oklahoma is 33-4 SU, 16-13 ATS at home the last five seasons. 

1. Florida Gators: Coach Urban Meyer stepped down for health reasons, so for 2011 Will Muschamp is the new coach. Muschamp spent the past three seasons as defensive coordinator at Texas. Muschamp has a defensive background and he brings in offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, who adds a pro-style attack. That is better suited to junior QB John Brantley, plus star recruit freshman QB Jeff Driskel (a Florida native) is in the wings.
  
8 starters are back on offense, 5 on defense.   The ground game has senior RB Jeff Demps (521 yards, 6.0 ypc), a super-talent who had a foot injury last season, while senior WR Deonte Thompson led the Gators with 570 receiving yards, an impressive 15 yards per catch. The defense struggled to get into the backfield, but look for Muschamp to unleash the hounds with all this talent. Florida is 38-6 SU, 23-17 ATS at home in the Swamp the last six years. The schedule is relatively easy, with the only difficult road games Oct. 8 at LSU and Oct. 15 at Auburn, back to back games. And the revenge game with South Carolina is on the road, September 12, a 36-14 loss last season.

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