Nite Owl's Side/Total BCS Title Game Twin Killing (Thu 8PM)
We like this game so much that we have picks on both our side and the total, for a total of 5 UNITS. And we also have a strong side/total teaser play, a side/total parlay recommendation, and likely strong individual team totals play(s) on one or both teams, once those lines are released on Game Day -- a total of 5 or 6 plays for10-13 UNITS, all for just $35, when you either buy this pick or our One Day CFB Pass. This pick comes with our typical detailed match-up analysis and full betting attack strategy, much like in Outback Bowl on NY Day, where WE "CLEANED UP" WITH IOWA AS OUR COLLEGE FB BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR. And we are sizzling hot for the past month -- 31-11 (73%) for +58 units L42 PODs, 33-20/+44 units L53 NBA, 8-4/+13 units L12 five unit NFL, and 8-4/+20 units L12 GOY/GOM picks.
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Three months of our premium NBA picks with detailed analysis and our full game betting "attack" strategy, all the way until All Star break in February -- these picks are guaranteed to win. Note that through Dec 27, we are 26-16 (62%) in our last 42 NBA picks, and recall that we closed very strong LY in NBA playoffs, winning more than 60% of our picks in NBA finals and conference finals.
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2008 MLB World Series Preview

by: Nite Owl Sports

This article is the final sequel to Nite Owl's two earlier MLB playoff previews (of the four divisional playoff series, and then both league championship series) published earlier this month in the Top Ten Cappers newsletter. And the results of the first two rounds, with underdogs LA Dodgers and Boston Red Sox winning two of the four divisional series, and then Tampa knocking off the defending World Series champion Red Sox in the ALCS, confirmed once more what I said in my earlier playoff preview, that any team which qualifies for the MLB playoffs is good enough to beat its opponent, not just in one game but in a 5 or 7 game series as well. This has been shown to be true in the last nineteen World Series, where only eight favorites have actually won, with several underdog teams pulling off major upsets. Not only that, those underdogs had often been underdogs in their League Championship Series as well.

Generally speaking, as also stated in my earlier playoff preview, the best "dog picks," for both individual games and series, are those with a fairly low "take back", like dogs in the +105 to +135 range. And looking at the series "odds" for this World Series, it appears that Philly, at a series price of about +120, is in that preferred light underdog "zone" of +105 to +135. This article contains my analysis of this World Series match-up, and some observations and opinions about which of these two teams is more likely (than their opponent) to prevail and become the new World Champs of baseball, and why.

And while the following summaries of both World Series results vs the money line for last 15 years, as well as this year's line results through October 13, show no particularly good or bad category, they also show that underdogs are generally competitive, especially so far TY in playoffs, with home dogs 3-1 and +$2.40 and road dogs even better, at 9-8 for +$4.60, @ $1 per game.

LINE RESULTS - WORLD SERIES 1993-2007

HOME FAVORITES 36-24 +$0.82

HOME UNDERDOGS 8-7 +$3.25

AWAY FAVORITES 7-8 -$2.73

AWAY UNDERDOGS 24-36 -$3.15

LINE RESULTS - 2008 POST-SEASON, AL & NL COMBINED -through 10/13

HOME FAVORITES 8-9 -$3.45

HOME UNDERDOGS 3-1 +$2.40

AWAY FAVORITES 1-3 -$2.09

AWAY UNDERDOGS 9-8 +$4.60

But before we get into "specifics" about this series, let me just  "throw out" a few of the general criteria that I use in trying to predict which team will win the series, which can also be used along with specific criteria (such as that related to the match-up of starting pitchers for each game) to predict which team will win a particular game in the series. As stated earlier, any team good enough to make the playoffs is good enough to win not just one game but a best of five or seven game series against its opponent, so many of the games will be close, often decided by one run and/or in extra innings. As a result, in addition to the normal criteria such as which team has the better home and road record, which team plays better at night and in the day, which team hits RHPs (right handed pitchers) better than LHPs (lefties), and whether one team has dominated the other during the regular season, especially during their last two series, a key factor often overlooked by bettors is which team has the better record in close games (i.e., games decided by one run and/or in extra innings), recognizing that while a team may have a good or average overall record in such close games, they may be much better in close games at home than they are on the road. And TY, the Boston Red Sox were a perfect example of that, with a splendid 19-6 home record in one run games, which turned into an ugly 4-19 (almost the direct opposite) when the Sox hit the road. And predictably, in the three games in their League Championship Series decided by two runs or less, Boston was 1-0 at home and 1-2 at Tampa.

Another key factor also frequently overlooked, by bettors too interested in the starting pitching match-ups, is which team has the better bullpen (and which bullpens perform notably better at home than on the road), especially the better set up man and closer, as many of these late round playoff games between two good teams will be decided in the late innings, or even in extra innings. But for those who like handicapping the games based primarily on the starting pitchers, it is essential to know (i) which pitchers fall into the which of the four pitcher types of categories (power or "contact," groundball or flyball), and (ii) which teams do well or poorly against those types of pitchers. And in the World Series, where teams from different leagues are playing each other and the starting pitchers thus have little if any records against their opponent, that information is even more essential. Do you have that key pitching information? We not only have it, but it is updated every few weeks (most recently last week), so the information is "fresh."

Before we get to analyzing the match-up between these two teams, we need to mention that last year's World Series, in which the Boston Red Sox won in 4 games over the Colorado Rockies, increased the American League's won-loss margin to 80-53 (60%) in games over the last 24 World Series - now that's league dominance, and something to remember when handicapping both this series and the individual games.

Series analysis - Tampa (-140) vs Philly 

Home field advantage - The first thing that jumps out at us about this series is Tampa having "home field advantage" and the best home record in MLB TY (now 61-26 after Rays' 4-2 home playoff record in rounds one and two vs both "Sox teams"), as well as a good 19-7 home record in one run games. But with Philly getting to play the "middle three" games at home (where they are now 52-33 and 15-9 in one run games), and it being a 7 game series, does the 2-3-2 home-road format really give Tampa a home field advantage? Only if they win both games 1 and 2, because if they don't and Phils can finish them off with a 3 game home seep, then Tampa will have gotten to play only two of the five games at home. And Philly has a better road record (47-39) than Tampa's .500 road mark at 43-43.

Record in close games - As stated above, Rays were 19-7 at home TY in one run games, compared to Philly's 16-9 at home. On the other hand, Rays were exactly .500 (11-11) away in one run games, compared to Phils 12-14. So no advantage to either team (except the home team) in one run games.

Starting Pitchers - Tampa's game one starter Scott Kazmir (and also presumably game 5 starter in Philly) may be the "X factor" here, as he has been both terrific (in game 5 at Boston), terrible (in game 2 at home vs Boston), and good but not great (in his game 2 home win over Chi Sox). Philly counters with their ace, Cole Hamels, who has good #s overall, has a good 3.15 ERA on the road, and has pitched well in all three playoff starts (3-0 with a 1.23 ERA). It should be noted that in game ones of regular season series TY, Phils have a big edge over Tampa, at 37-17 compared to Rays' so-so 30-24. And in playoffs TY, Philly is 2-0 in game ones, while Tampa is 1-1. In game two, Rays will go with James Shields, who is a real "homer" pitcher, with great home numbers (10-4 with a 2.75 at Trop Dome, with Rays 15-5 in his home starts), but he did lose both of his starts against Boston, and they were both at home. But I believe Phillies manager Charlie Manuel is making a critical mistake in starting Brett Myers and his crappy road ERA of 6.2 (with Phils having won just 5 of his 16 road starts) rather than saving him for game 3 or 4 at home, where he has a much better 3.25 ERA (with Phils 9-7 in his home starts TY). And with each team using a four man rotation, the match-ups for games 3 and 4 in Philly appear to be ALCS MVP Matt Garza starting for Rays in game 3 against Philly's "senior citizen" Jamie Moyer, and Andy "Sunshine" Sonnanstine the likely starter for Rays in game 4 against Phils' Joe Blanton. Then the rotations presumably will revert to the game one starters for game 5 in Philly, followed by the game 2 starters in game 6 in Tampa, and the game 3 starters in game 7 (if necessary), also in Tampa. So Philly's pitching rotation will have both of Brett Myers' starts in Tampa, which by itself is reason enough to keep me off of Philly to win the series.

Bullpens and closers -both bullpens have pretty equivalent numbers overall, and both are good at home (with Tampa at 2.95 and Philly at 3.05), but Tampa's 4.2 on the road (coupled with memory of having blown a 7-0 lead for starter Kazmir in game 5 at Boston) is less impressive than Philly's 3.25 away. And we believe Phils have a huge edge with closers, with "perfect" (45-0 TY in save opportunities) Brad Lidge in their pitching arsenal, and playing status (chronic back stiffness) of Tampa #1 closer Troy Percival still in doubt (did not pitch in either playoff series, and officially listed as "questionable" for World Series), and back-up closer Wheeler decent, but certainly no Lidge (and even a significant drop off from Percival, when Percy is healthy). Lidge also sports a 1.95 ERA, but it's his microscopic 075 road ERA, in 37 IP, that really gets our attention.

Managers - Managing edge goes to Rays' Joe Madden, our candidate for Manager of the Year, over Phils Charlie Manuel, who we see as the National League version of Red Sox manager "Tito" Francona, as both are very likable guys and popular "players' coaches," but neither is a "mental giant." And Manuel's rigid adherence to his pitching rotation, without giving proper weight to the home and road records of game two starter Brett Myers, just reinforces our opinion.

Summary - this is one of those tough to pick series where both sides have many "positives" in their favor, and it's tough to go against either one. While we believe the pitching rotation favors Rays, we don't recommend laying -140 against this very good Philly team which has been playing its best ball of the season during these playoffs. However, Nite Owl will most likely have some strong individual game picks in this series, but to get them you will have to buy one of our many available MLB or all sport packages for one day, three days, seven days or more, unless we have rated a pick on one of these games so high that we are selling it on an individual game basis (in which case there will be a Big Pick Alert on the Top Ten Cappers website home page and likely in the daily newsletter).

Hopefully the foregoing MLB World Series analysis will enable readers to spot and take advantage of value producing situations in this interesting match-up, and will acquaint everyone with the handicapping philosophies, techniques, thorough analysis and well written write ups which have become a trademark of Night Owl Sports. And we'd love to have you with us for the remainder of the MLB playoffs, for our recently reduced price of just $59 through the final out of the World Series, which we believe to be a great bargain, especially considering our winning record on MLB playoff side picks TY, and our incredible 10-1 for +23 units in LY's playoffs..

This article is copyrighted by Nite Owl Sports and is intended for the exclusive use of Night Owl Sports and toptencappers.com

Nite Owl Sports Past Articles

The Annual Heisman Hoax
The Heisman trophy will be handed out this evening, but the "tarnish" on that once prestigious trophy resulting from (i) the premature determination ... read more

Let’s Get the BS out of the BCS
Ever since I can remember, talk starts to heat up in November about which team is #1 in college football, and reaches new heights during the bowl selection ... read more

2008 MLB World Series Preview
This article is the final sequel to Nite Owl's two earlier MLB playoff previews (of the four divisional playoff series, and then both league championship ... read more

Red Sox on the Ropes
The Tampa Rays are now one game away from a World Series "date" with the Philadelphia Phillies, after pounding the defending World Champion ... read more

2008 MLB Championship Series Playoff Preview
2008 MLB Championship Series Playoff Preview This article is a sequel to Nite Owl's MLB playoff preview (of the four divisional playoff series) published ... read more

All Nite Owl Sports Past Articles

Nite Owl Sports Recent Past Picks

NBA Basketball

New Orleans Hornets @ Los Angeles Lakers Tuesday January 6, 2009 10:30 pm
Game update -- see end of write up for strong team totals playWe like LA Lakers in this match-up, mostly because they seem to play their best aginst the better (.500> win %) teams, with a 9-3 ATS record TY against such teams, incl 6-2 at home. And NO is just the opposite, with ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

College Basketball

Northern Iowa Panthers @ Creighton Blue Jays Tuesday January 6, 2009 8:05 pm
We like Bluejays here for two units at this high but not unfair price, as they are 3-0 ATS TY at home vs A and B teams (NI being a B-), with average MOV of 13, while NI is 1-3 ATS TY in its 4 lined roadies (all vs B teams, while Creighton is an A team), with one of those losses by ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

NBA Basketball

New York Knicks @ Oklahoma City Thunder Tuesday January 6, 2009 8:00 pm
Game update -- see end of write up for indiv team totals playWhile we like Knicks in this match-up, and will play them, we'd like them more if they weren't not only starting a road trip here but also coming off odf their biggest win of the season, a 12 point upset win over hated ... read more

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College Football

Ball State Cardinals @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane Tuesday January 6, 2009 8:00 pm
Final Game update -- see end of write upOriginal write up -- While both teams are fairly even stats wise and both have prolific offenses, the "intangibles" strongly favor Tulsa here, enough that we will take them at -2 over Ball St, whose "dream season" pretty ... read more

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College Football

Ball State Cardinals @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane Tuesday January 6, 2009 8:00 pm
With ML at -130 to -135, we also like Tulsa at that price, just to win SU. And it's not that we are taking them on ML because we have doubts that they will cover the small spot of -2 or 2.5, but rather because with games in this price range, we often split our bets between ML and ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

NBA Basketball

Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Bobcats Tuesday January 6, 2009 7:00 pm
Game update -- see end of write upWe are going to use a 5 unit phase in approach to betting Boston in this game, by making three small plays on Celtics -- one for two units vs FG line, one for two units vs first quarter line, and one for one unit vs first half line (this one). This ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

NBA Basketball

Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Bobcats Tuesday January 6, 2009 7:00 pm
We are  using a 5 unit phase in approach to betting Boston in this game, by making three small plays on Celtics -- one for two units vs FG line, one for two units vs first quarter line (this one), and one for one unit vs first half line. This strategy is based not on just some ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

NBA Basketball

Washington Wizards @ Orlando Magic Tuesday January 6, 2009 7:00 pm
We like Magic to blow out wash in this game, coming off embarrassing loss at Toronto Sunday, much like they did Cicago Bulls on road after their last upset loss.Magicg has easily beaten wash twice TY, by 15 and 25 (the latter in orlando), with Dwight Howard dominating both times ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

NBA Basketball

Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Bobcats Tuesday January 6, 2009 7:00 pm
We like Boston in this spot, the main reason being that they are coming off of a big upset loss, to the lowly NY Knicks. And while Celtics are just 3-2 ATS after a loss TY, Boston is 3-0 ATS after an upset loss where they are playing on at least one day's rest, the situation here, ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

College Football

Ohio State Buckeyes @ Texas Longhorns Monday January 5, 2009 8:00 pm
Game update -- see end of write up for first half playThis game is an interesting match-up -- on the one hand, we have a Texas team still steaming from being snubbed (no, actually screwed) by the strange Big 12 tie breaker system, which allowed Oklahoma to go to the Conference Championship ... read more

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