2007 AFC North Preview

by: Ben Burns

The AFC North is arguably the most competitive division in the NFL. Every other division in the league has either one or two teams which are favored to finish on top. The North is the exception as there are three teams which are all expected to contend for the title. The Ravens finished first in 2006. Backed with the best defense in the division, they are slight favorites to repeat. However, the Bengals, who possess the best offense, are right there with them. The Steelers, who are only two years removed from winning the Super Bowl can’t be forgotten. All three teams are projected to finish with a winning record. Although expected to suffer through another losing season, there is also some excitement in Cleveland, as the Browns landed Brady Quinn in the draft.

The following is a closer look at this year’s AFC North teams.

Baltimore Ravens  2006 Record 13-3 SU 10-6 ATS Playoff Record 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U 2006 O/U Record 6-9-1 Noteworthy Trend/s 6-2 ATS at home; 5-2 ATS as dogs; 5-1 vs. division Projected Regular Season wins  Open: 9o-130  Current: 9o-145Odds to win Super Bowl +2250 Head Coach Brian Billick Offensive Coordinator Rick Neuheisel Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan 

Offense: The Ravens averaged 22.1-points per game (PPG) last season, which was slightly better than the league average of 20.7. McNair thrived in his first year as a Raven, bringing experience and poise to the quarterback position. Although he didn’t put up huge stats, McNair finished with a career best 63% completion percentage and his best passer rating since sharing the MVP award in 2003. While the passing attack ranked in the top third, the once powerful rushing attack bogged down and ranked in the bottom third of the league. As a result, this year’s offense will feature a new running back in Willis McGahee. The Ravens are hoping McGahee, who is more of a “slasher,” will provide an upgrade over the departed Jamal Lewis. Mark Clayton, Derrick Mason, Demetrius Williams and tight end Todd Heap provide McNair with a solid and deep receiving corps.

Probable Preseason QB rotation: Steve McNair, Kyle Boller, Drew Olsen, Troy Smith.

Defense: The Ravens’ defense ranked No. 1 in the league, allowing a mere 12.6-ppg. They gave up 75.9 rushing yards per game (second best) and finished in the top ten in passing yards allowed with 188.2 per game. That was good for the No.1 overall ranking in terms of total yards allowed with 264.1. The Ravens also ranked No. 1 in terms of time of possession with the defense regularly forcing their opponents to go “three and out.” This year’s unit loses Adalius Thomas. The star linebacker was a rare athlete and will be missed. Jarret Johnson, who had previously been a steady backup with the Ravens, will start in Thomas’ place. Johnson is known for his “grit and high motor” but doesn’t possess the type of athleticism that Thomas did. Otherwise, the defense remains in tact.

Draft Report: With their first pick the Ravens selected Ben Grubbs, a 6-foot-3, 314-pound Guard from Auburn. Grubbs was considered the best guard in the draft and will challenge Keydrick Vincent for his starting job. With their fifth pick, Baltimore picked up former Ohio State star QB, Troy Smith. Smith had a solid career but didn’t do himself any favors with a poor performance in the BCS championship game.

Prediction: The Ravens have all the pieces in place. They are also an older team which knows that time is running out. That should result in a sense of urgency right out of the gate. IF they can stay healthy I expect them to win the division and win their first playoff game since 2001.

Possible Play: Week 2 vs. New York Jets
Yes, the Ravens are coming off a big Monday night game at Cincinnati. However, the Jets are coming off of a big divisional game of their own (vs. the Patriots) and the Ravens aren’t likely to suffer a “letdown” for their home opener. Indeed, Baltimore has won three of its last four home openers by a minimum of 17 points and is an excellent 15-5 its last 20 home games played in the month of September, going a profitable 13-5-2 at the betting window. The Ravens franchise has also dominated the Jets in recent years, going a perfect 6-0 ATS (5-1 SU) the last six series meetings. Both games played here in Baltimore have resulted in double-digit wins for the home team. Consider a play on Baltimore in Week 2.

Cincinnati Bengals   2006 Record 8-8 SU  8-7-1 ATS 2006 O/U Record 7-9Noteworthy Trend/s 4-2 divisional record Projected Regular Season wins 9o-130 Odds to win Super Bowl Open: +1815   Current: +2050 Head Coach Marvin Lewis Offensive Coordinator Bob Bratkowski Defensive Coordinator Chuck Bresnahan 

Offense:  The Bengals had a well-balanced attack in 2006, averaging 23.3 points and 341.4 total yards per game. Carson Palmer rebounded from the knee injury he suffered in the playoff loss to Pittsburgh to start all 16 games and become the first Bengals QB to throw for more than 4000 yards. Palmer has a pair of outstanding receivers to work with in Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh. Third receiver Chris Henry will miss the first eight games due to suspension. Henry, one of nine Bengals arrested in nine months, will be missed. However, the Bengals are rich at the receiver position and they should be able to deal with his loss more than other teams would. The running game is also in good shape with Rudi Johnson carrying the load. Johnson had 1300 yards last season and has 4200 over the past three. Kenny Irons (Auburn) was picked up in the second round and Jeremi Johnson is known to be a solid fullback.

Probable Preseason QB rotation:  Carson Palmer, Doug Johnson, Jeff Smith and Jeff Rowe.

Defense: Cincinnati had an mediocre defense overall with opponents averaging 20.7-points per game (PPG) against them. While the Bengals were decent at stopping the run, their pass defense was the second worst in the entire league, allowing opposing teams to average a whopping 238.6 passing yards per game. Cornerback Jonathan Joseph, last year’s first round selection, will be expected to improve significantly from last season, as will veteran Deltha Oneal, who had a poor season. Joseph currently has a sore foot but should be fine by opening day. Leon Hall (see below) will be expected to contribute immediately.

Draft Report: The Bengals felt lucky to get a player the caliber of Leon Hall (5-foot-11 CB from Michigan) at the 18th spot in the first round. Hall, regarded as one of the premier coverage cornerbacks in the collegiate ranks will be starting from day one. Running back Kenny Irons, the 49th pick overall, stepped in for Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown at Auburn and the Tigers barely missed a beat. Some thought there were better quarterbacks available than Reno's Jeff Rowe in the fifth round.

Prediction: As long as Palmer remains healthy, Cincinnati should have the best offense in the division again this season. If the secondary improves the way Bengals’ fans hope it will, this could be the year that they finally take the next step. Regardless, they should be in a “catfight” for the division title the entire way.

Possible Play: Week 12 vs. Tennessee

This situation favors the home team. Cincinnati hosted Arizona for an early Sunday afternoon affair while Tennessee is coming off of a difficult Monday night game at Denver. Palmer was 27-of-33 for 272 yards and two touchdowns and a rating of 121.2 the last time he faced Tennessee. Chad Johnson had eight of those catches for 135 yards. The Bengals won that game at Tennessee by eight points. Prior to that game, when the Bengal’s were going through their “down years,” the Titans had won nine of 10 meetings in the series. The Bengal’s haven’t forgotten those years of suffering and they’ll be more than happy to punish their road-weary guests. Look for Palmer and Johnson to combine for more big numbers against what figures to be somewhat of a suspect Tennessee secondary. Consider a play on Cincinnati in Week 12.

Cleveland Browns  2006 Record 4-12 SU 7-8-1 ATS 2006 O/U Record 6-9-1 Noteworthy Trend/s 0-6 divisional record Projected Regular Season wins Open: 5.5o-150 Current: 6 u-130 Odds to win Super Bowl Open: +10550   Current: +6550 Head Coach Romeo Crennel Offensive Coordinator Rob Chudzinski Defensive Coordinator Todd Grantham 

Offense: The 2006 Browns ranked a miserable 30th in scoring, mustering a dismal 14.9-points per game (PPG). A big part of the problem was that they averaged only 83.4 on the ground, second worst in the league. In an attempt to address the problem, the Browns picked up Jamal Lewis via free agency. Lewis, who gained more than 2000 yards in 2003, should be hungry as he only signed a one-year deal. The passing attack was slightly better but also finished in the bottom third of the league, with 181 yards through the air per game Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson turned the ball over a combined 33 times last season and were statistically the worst quarterback tandem in the league. Frye will likely begin the year as the starter but it will only be a matter of time before Brady Quinn takes over the reins. Regardless of who the QB is, a healthy Kellen Winslow should provide a big lift for the offense. The offensive line was terrible last season but is expected to improve with the addition of Thomas.
Probable Preseason QB rotation:  Charlie Frye, Ken Dorsey, Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn
Defense: The Browns were a little better on the defensive side of the ball as they ranked 22nd overall. Opponents averaged 22.3-ppg, slightly below the league average of 20.7. After drafting a trio of linebackers with their top four picks in 2006, the Browns appear relatively solid at that position. The secondary appears questionable and the defensive line looks shaky.

Draft Report: No team seemed to make more noise and garner more praise than the Cleveland Browns did on draft day. Instead of selecting Ohio native Brady Quinn from Notre Dame with their first pick, the Browns grabbed the top left tackle in the draft, 6'6" Joe Thomas from Wisconsin as the third overall pick and then seemingly stole Quinn with the 22nd pick of the first round. While those were the two headline-grabbing moves, the Browns also traded up to get a quality cornerback in Eric Wright.

Prediction: Behind a solid draft, the future suddenly seems a little brighter for Browns’ fans. The North is an extremely tough division and even the most optimistic supporters aren’t purchasing their playoff tickets quite yet. Look for the Browns to improve on last years 4-12 mark, but don’t expect any miracles. Prediction: fourth place.

Possible Play: Week 14 vs. New York Jets

The Jets figure to be laying a handful of points but this is a difficult spot for them. New York played at Miami last week and they play at New England next week. The Browns, on the other hand, faced Buffalo last week and have Arizona on deck, neither of which are division rivals. The Browns beat the Jets at Cleveland last season and two previous meetings this millennium were both decided by just a field goal. The Browns entered last week’s game at Arizona having gone 9-3 ATS their last 12 road games in December. Don’t be surprised if they give the Jets everything they can handle once again. Consider a play on Cleveland in Week 14.

Pittsburgh Steelers  2006 Record 8-8 SU 7-8-1 ATS 2006 O/U Record 9-6-1 Noteworthy Trend/s 2-5-1 ATS on the road Projected Regular Season wins Open: 9u-125 Current: 9u-145 Odds to win Super Bowl Open: +2550   Current: +2850 Head Coach Mike Tomlin Offensive Coordinator Bruce Arians Defensive Coordinator Dick Lebeau

Previous Coach: Bill Cowher. Cowher coached in Pittsburgh for 15 years and probably could have coached another 15 years. Instead, the fiery future Hall-of-Famer decided to step down to spend more time with his family. In addition to winning a Super Bowl, Cowher led the Steelers to the playoffs 10 times. Insiders seem to believe that there’s a good chance that we’ll see Cowher back on the sidelines for another team within the next couple of years.

New Coach: Mike Tomlin. Tomlin will be just the third Steelers’ coach since 1969. Prior to Cowher’s 15-year run, Chuck Knoll had coached the team for 23 years. The 34-year old Tomlin, served as defensive coordinator for the Vikings last season, is the first African-American head coach in franchise history.

Offense: Rothlisberger could do no wrong in his rookie season. However, after having a serious motorcycle accident that summer, he struggled last year. In fact, he had 23 interceptions to just 18 touchdowns. Despite Big Ben’s struggles, the Steelers still finished above the league average with 22.1-points per game (PPG). Willie Parker paced the ground attack with 1494 yards on the ground. The Steelers have long been known for their rushing attacks and that was the third best rushing total in the team’s history. The veteran Hines Ward and the youngster Santonio Holmes provide Rothlisberger with a pair of quality targets.

Probable Preseason QB rotation:  Ben Roethlisberger, Charlie Batch, Brian St. Pierre and Bryan Randall.

Defense:  The Steelers remained tough against the run last season, allowing only 88.3 yards per game, the third best mark in the league. This year’s team will have to deal with the loss of linebacker Joey Porter, the heart and soul of last season’s emotional unit. Tomlin used his first two picks on linebackers, but neither will be expected to start immediately. While the linebacker spot remains a question mark, the Steelers are strong along the defensive line. The secondary, which gave up a relatively high 212 yards per game last season, has a star in safety Troy Polamulu. The rest of the group appears mediocre. 

Draft Report: The Steelers made OLB Lawrence Timmons from Florida State their No. 1 pick, 15th overall. While he may not start immediately, Timmons helps fill a gaping hold at OLB, as Joey Porter has moved on to Miami. The Steelers also used their second round pick on a linebacker selecting LaMarr Woodley from Michigan. Although the Steelers didn't necessarily need a TE, when 6-foot-7, 267-pound Matt Spaeth from Minnesota was still around they grabbed him.
Prediction: The Steelers are solid overall and are certainly capable of competing with any team on any given Sunday. They’ve got a new coach though and I’m not convinced that they are as good as either Baltimore or Cincinnati. I’m penciling them in for third place in the division.

Possible Play:  Week 3 vs. San Francisco
This is a difficult scheduling spot for San Francisco. The 49ers faced division rival Arizona on Monday night in Week 1. They followed that up by playing a big game against St. Louis last week. Additionally, they’ve got a date with the division champs, Seattle on deck. Conversely, the Steelers hosted a non-divisional opponent (Buffalo) last week and face another non-divisional foe (Arizona) next week. Pittsburgh was 2-0 SU/ATS last season when playing the second of back-to-back home games, winning by a combined 27 points. That brings them to 5-1 ATS the last six times they played the second of back-to-back games. Tomlin knows that he can’t afford to drop home games to teams like the 49ers and that he needs to take advantage of a relatively soft early schedule. Consider a play on Pittsburgh in Week 3.

Ben Burns Past Articles

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2007 AFC West Preview
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2007 AFC North Preview
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